The Jubilee Coalition, if elected, has vowed to reconsider Kenya’s relations with the West, who have been key in Kenya’s economic development on account of their position regarding the ongoing ICC cases. Withdrawal of essential funding that complements Kenya’s tax revenue will be a direct consequence and will lead to high budget deficit.
It is a no brainer to assume that to bridge the budget deficit in order to sustain government expenditure, in particular the ever-rising wage bill, the Jubilee Government would resort to, raising taxes including income tax, VAT and import duty, among others tax categories. This will have a serious impact on households, especially the middle class and the rural poor.
Meanwhile, it is an open secret that the West has threatened economic sanctions and weed out “non essential contact” with a Jubilee government. Below are some of the effects of such sanctions:
· The European Union will put an embargo on flower exports from Kenya, meaning there would be no access of market, leading to a massive loss of jobs and foreign exchange in the flower cluster around Naivasha, Limuru, Nairobi, Nakuru,Thika and Kericho.
· Travel advisories will impact on tourism as tourists will shun Kenya, and the industry will collapse. Most tourists visiting Kenya are from Britain, US, Italy and Germany; contrast that with zero from China, Russia, Syria, Iran, North Korea and Sudan, among other rogue states Jubilee is planning to turn to.
· Programs like Free Primary Education and the life sustaining and critical national HIV & Aids management effort would collapse as they are funded by the European Union and the US.
· Farmers in the tea and coffee industry will be hard hit as there will be no market for their produce. The ban on miraa export to Netherlands is just the tip of the iceberg.
· Kenyan artisans will not get a market to sell their artefacts. The soapstone industry in Kisii, Masai beads and ciondo weaving among other small micro business would collapse overnight.
· Most international companies having their regional headquarters in Nairobi will have to relocate to other pro-West territories like Tanzania and Uganda; this will lead massive job losses and turning investments like the Konza IT City into white elephants.
· Investors will shun Kenya, leading to zero Foreign Direct Investment into the economy and worsening Foreign Exchange situation. Do you need to be told that this will necessitate declined or stagnated economic growth?
· The United Nations will relocate the UNEP headquarters from Kenya most probably to South Africa or Germany.
Are you ready to see the Kenyan economy go to the dogs? Thankfully, many Kenyans are now starting to realise what is at stake as some politicians try hard to shift the debate from these critical issues and keep the masses under their tribal spell. Please vote wisely on Monday.