|Kibaki's star-crossed envoys meet Wenaweser in New York last week.|
The request is dead on arrival now that the ICC has summoned the Ocampo Six. The noose just got tighter. Maybe Mr Kibaki thinks the Ocampo Six could implicate him. Or the Ocampo Six have “taken him hostage”.
They have mega credibility problems. Mr Musyoka, the leader of the pack, is a key 2012 intriguer together with Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret MP William Ruto, two of the Ocampo Six. That alone shatters his credibility. He seeks the deferral for two reasons. He may want to save the two pillars of the PNU/KKK alliance without whom he faces an uphill task against PM Raila Odinga in 2012. Or he may be “playing to the gallery” and feigning sympathy with Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto to harvest Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes if the two are carted off to The Hague.
This playbook is transparent to the Americans and Brits who are certain to veto the deferral request. It’s not a secret that Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto and Head of Civil Service Francis Muthaura – another of the Ocampo Six – are the “master puppeteers” behind VP Musyoka and President Kibaki. So how credible is the VP if he is being orchestrated by the suspects? The AU, a bastion of impunity, may listen to him. But why would the UN Security Council? I have some advice for Mr Kibaki. This play is so futile that he might as well have appointed Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto to lobby for the deferral themselves. Sending Mr Musyoka to the UN in New York is an insult to the intelligence of the Security Council. President Kibaki has bad advisers.
Let’s look at the other “envoys”. Agriculture minister Sally Kosgei has already pledged loyalty to Mr Ruto and condemned the ICC. Her vitriol against The Hague has been venomous. Why would anyone listen to her?
Defender of impunity
|Is this the sort of company that respectable statesmen keep?|
A smarter strategy would have seen the Ocampo Six stay as far away from President Kibaki and VP Musyoka as possible. Which knucklehead advises these people?
I predict that Kenya’s request for a deferral will never make it on the Security Council agenda. Why? Because it’s not a matter of “international peace and security”. Even more importantly, I don’t think Kenya will get any country on the Security Council to put the matter on its agenda. That’s why it wasn’t put on the agenda for February and March.
Won’t touch it
Think of this push for the deferral in the context of WikiLeaks. WikiLeaks paints Mr Kibaki as a protector of impunity. Mr Musyoka comes off as a lightweight who will do anything to ascend to the top. Both behaved in undignified ways before Ambassador Michael Ranneberger, America’s envoy in Nairobi. The ICC “shuttle diplomacy” further diminishes them.