Friday, February 22, 2013

Tyranny Of Numbers 2.0 - Mutahi Ngunyi's analysis refined

Mutahi Ngunyi's "Tyranny Of Numbers" has now been
discredited and found to hold no substance.
There has been uproar over the recent projection of numbers made by Mutahi Ngunyi which gave Jubilee Alliance an advantage over the CORD coalition. For the first time, Ngunyi was dismissed by the public, particularly on social media.

It is an open secret that any political contest can only be won on numbers. A group of political scientists and social research experts took a critical look at the Ngunyi analysis, taking into account the emerging developments from battlefront areas all over the country.
Let’s start with the total  numbers of registered voters as per IEBC:

1. Central - 2,190,476
2. Nyanza - 1,
3. Western - 1, 434,987
4. Coast - 1,640,083
5. N. Eastern - 504,482
6. Eastern - 2,092,883
7. Rift Valley - 3,373,853
8. Nairobi - 1, 778,903

It’s regrettable that majority of the electorate will vote along tribal lines. Jubilee Alliance’s Uhuru Kenyatta's support base is in the former provinces of Central, Rift Valley, parts of Nairobi and parts of 
Eastern. On the face of it, if Jubilee can keep intact these regions and presume 85% support, then a win in the first round will be imminent.

However, scratching deeper below the surface complicates the puzzle somewhat.

Consider the supposed Jubilee strongholds of Rift Valley, Eastern and Nairobi. Central is purely uncontested for Jubilee just like Nyanza is for CORD. Moving to Rift Valley, however, the bitter truth is that majority of the Kalenjin will vote as per Ruto’s wishes, while majority of the cosmopolitan areas will vote along ethnic lines.

Rift Valley Region - 
The core Kalenjin Counties (registered voters)

1. Elgeeyo Marakwet - 134,290
2. Nandi - 254,788
3. Baringo - 171,013
4. Kericho - 290,102
5. Bomet - 254,405
Total - 1,104,598

The total of 1,104,598 from the core Kalenjin Counties can be assigned to Jubilee since William Ruto commands the region, save for a significant minority of Tea Plantation workers in Kericho, Bomet and Nandi, compromising mainly Gusii and Luo tribes. Gideon Mois’s KANU, in an alliance with Mudavadi, may chip out an insignificant minority as spoils.

The non-Kalejin Rift Valley 
(registered voters)

1. Kajiado - 315,053
2. Narok - 253,086
3. Turkana - 120,345
4. West Pokot - 107,894
5. Samburu - 56,662
6. Trans Nzoia - 231,352
7. Uasin Gishu - 318,717
8. Laikipia - 170,267
9. Nakuru - 695,879
Total - 2,269,255

The above Counties do not have a clear favorite. Jubilee cannot confidently claim more than 60%, and here is why: The Maasai who reside in Narok and Kajiado are largely pro-CORD, courtesy of William Ole Ntimama and Maj. Gen. (Rtd) J. K. Nkaissery. The Mau eviction and the perceived historical land injustices are a major encumbrance to Jubilee's support.

Samburu and West Pokot Counties might be a 50% scoop for both CORD and Jubilee. Trans Nzoia is purely cosmopolitan, with Luhya, Kisii and Kalenjin farmers residing in the area with native Sabaots, giving neither CORD nor Jubilee an edge.

Nakuru is even more cosmopolitan and if you scan the register of Nakuru County, Gusii, Luhya, Akamba and Luo weigh in with 258,624 voters, giving Jubilee a maximum 60%.

From the foregoing break down of Rift Valley, Jubilee Alliance therefore cannot brag to command the region beyond 60%. Half of the votes are split! The split is due to the cosmopolitan nature of some parts, and the Maasai, Turkana and Samburu comfortably give Raila between 800,000 – 1,000,000 votes from Rift Valley. That is Jubilee's biggest nightmare and may be a game changer.

With the Maasai, Samburu and Turkana votes in the bag, we can now add the cosmopolitan Luyha, Kisii and other communities who will most likely add up for Raila and NOT for Jubilee. A few weeks ago, CORD signed a MoU with Kalenjin elders, farmers and professionals; these will give Raila a few more votes. Raila’s schemes and political antics will be at play, and it is possible that he can cut through these numbers. Jubilee may have the numbers in Rift Valley but NOT a clear majority, and this complicates the Tyranny Of Numbers for Jubilee in the Rift Valley.

Nairobi Region
Nairobi has a total of 1,778,903 IEBC registered voters. Since elections will be held in March, the IEBC calendar has forced village voters to vote in the city, meaning they won’t be travelling upcountry to vote as they been. This explains why voter registration turnout was 138% in Nairobi. A tally of Luo, Luhya, Kamba and Gusii voters, who are inclined to CORD, totals 1,192,037. If they will be faithful to their ethnic spirit like their village counterparts, then they are likely to vote for CORD and an insignificant minority will vote for Amani. There is absolutely no doubt that Raila Odinga will emerge the winner in Nairobi by at least 1,000,000 votes, assuming a more than 95% voter turnout.

Eastern Region
Eastern can be split into two parts: the upper Eastern region has historically been voting as a block with Central under the GEMA, and is expected to do the same this time round. However, Lower Eastern, compromising mainly the Kamba, will most likely vote for CORD. Charity Ngilu is a light weight, with no significant position in Jubilee Alliance and no sway in the Kamba vote.

Now this what the numbers in Lower Eastern say:

1. Makueni - 300,086
2. Machakos - 445,819
3. Kitui - 323,624
Total 1,069,529
Lower Eastern with 1,069,529 registered voters can comfortably be said to be in CORD.

Meanwhile in Upper Eastern:

1. Meru 483,517
2. Isiolo 52,617
3. Marsabit 104,408
4. Embu 226,989
5. Tharaka 155,82
Total 1,023,354
Isiolo and Marsabit might be an equal share or a slight win for CORD. Meru, Tharaka and Embu are solidly Jubilee. However, the recent inroads by Raila into Meru and the ban of miraa export to the Netherlands and the perception that Raila is better placed that Uhuru (who is leaning towards China, North Korea, Iran, Syria and the rest of Africa where miraa has no market) to negotiate with the European union should ensure that Raila picks up a few more votes. With the mistreatment of Kiraitu Murungi and the subsequent take off of Mbus, Jubilee is vulnerable in Meru.

Mutahi Ngunyi’s Tyranny Of Numbers would only hold if Jubilee got absolute control of Eastern, Nairobi and Rift Valley. CORD, on the other hand, is expected to lead with big margins at the Coast, Lower Eastern, Western, North Eastern and Nyanza; juxtapose this to Jubilee’s lead in Rift Valley and Central.

As illustrated above, Raila is likely to garner more than 1,000,000 votes in Rift valley mainly from the Maasai, Turkana, Samburu and Cosmopolitan or CORD aligned immigrant communities - Gusii, Luyha, Luo and Kamba. This will enable Raila Odinga to win round one hands down. This is practically and politically possible.

If Raila won’t win round one, he will definitely win the run-off on the basis of:

  • Hague/ICC related complications
  • Senior Jubilee stalwarts like Prof. Ongeri, Balala, Mwakwere and Ngilu may fail to win their senate races. They would be shell shocked and embarrassed to come out and campaign for Jubilee in their respective home turfs. With all the fringe Presidential candidates out of national limelight, Jubilee would be confirmed as a two tribe outfit and will be soundly rejected by majority of Kenyans.

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