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The Legacy of Fear: How the Shadow of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Shaped Kenya's Political Landscape In the annals of Kenya's political history, the events of 1969 stand out as a defining moment marked by fear, coercion, and manipulation. The political tension surrounding Jaramogi Oginga Odinga's candidature led to a series of oath-taking ceremonies in Gatundu that forever altered the fabric of Kenyan society. Understanding this historical context is crucial, especially when contemporary politicians attempt to invoke these dark chapters for political gain. The Fear of Jaramogi and the Birth of the Gatundu Oath The roots of the infamous Gatundu oath can be traced back to the fear and propaganda surrounding Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the former vice-president and then-leader of the opposition. By 1969, the political landscape in Kenya was charged with tension. The assassination of Cabinet Minister Tom Mboya on 5th July 1969 had already set a volatile backdrop. Within this context, Pr

William Ruto Will Not Be On The 2022 Ballot Afterall. Here’s Why.


It would appear that Deputy President William Ruto has run out of prayers. After a rigorous and protracted march to State House that began in 2012—some would argue even as far back as 1992—Ruto’s run at the house on the hill may finally have run out of steam. Either that or he has altogether surrendered to the forces fighting to curtail his 2022 bid.


Speculation about Ruto’s dwindling political star entered overdrive when, out of the blue, the media reported a political union between himself on the one hand and Amani National Congress (ANC) party leader Musalia Mudavadi and Bungoma Senator and beleaguered Ford Kenya chairman Moses Wetang’ula on the other. Two separate meetings, one convened by Ruto at his Karen home and another by the ANC supremo with some of his trusted lieutenants, created a technical committee to spearhead the fledgling alliance. The committee will feature MPs Sakwa Bunyasi (Nambale) and Alfred Agoi (Sabatia) for ANC, Janet Nangabo (Trans Nzoia) and Ben Washiali (representing Jubilee’s Tangatanga faction) and Chris Wamalwa (Kiminini) and Ferdinand Wanyonyi (Kwanza) of Ford Kenya. The committee is mandated to work out a blueprint for cooperation. The leaders will also appoint members of a secretariat. Going by this alone, it is clear that Ruto regards Mudavadi as the de facto leader of the Luhya community.


“The meeting brought Jubilee, those from Western allied to the DP, ANC and Ford Kenya together. We have agreed to join forces to address the challenges facing our people. We have been treated badly and it is time this changed,” announced Mumias East MP Ben Washiali after the meetings, fresh from being dropped as National Assembly Majority Whip during President Uhuru Kenyatta’s unexpected purge of Jubilee members loyal to the Deputy President. Being careful not to implicate Ruto in the larger scheme, Washiali added that the committee will report to the “principals” on the way forward before year’s end. The report, the MPs said, will be accompanied by “far-reaching announcements” by the principals. Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa, who also attended the meetings, holds that there will be no looking back, “given the tribulations” the DP is facing in the ruling party.


Talk is rife that should Ruto be convinced that the forces out to block him from ascending to the presidency have their way, he might opt to front someone else for the presidency in the hope that the Constitution will be reviewed (read referendum) to create the position of Executive Prime Minister, a position into which he will then seamlessly slide and give it another go via Parliament.


This view is borne out by Makau Mutua. In a tweet that sent Twitter tongues a wagging, the SUNY Distinguished Professor and political pundit wrote, “I am told that DP @williamsRuto will likely drop out of the political contest and endorse @MusaliaMudavadi for the top seat.” In refernce to Ruto’s vindictive nature and the raw need to deal Raila Odinga a yet elusive knockout blow, he added: “The idea is to lock out @RailaOdinga should he choose to run.”


Lately, Ruto has made a tactical retreat from his erstwhile fired-up campaign to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta. Political observers surmise that he may have chosen this approach due to the government’s heightened attention to his activities and those of his allies. Never mind that he is ostensibly in that very same government.


With Machiavellian precision, an elaborate plan to bring down the DP is underway, painting the firebrand politician into a corner. His key lieutenants are facing removal from plum Parliamentary committees and his once-iron grip of the Jubilee Party is greatly enfeebled. Those in the Senate—among them Kipchumba Murkomen, Susan Kihika and Kithure Kindiki—have been expunged. Meanwhile, the Jubilee disciplinary apparatus is expected to take a decision on the tenure of five nominated senators allied to him. Uhuru has further gelded Ruto with an open show of no commitment to support his deputy as he once did and loudly proclaimed. Further, Ruto’s office budget has been cut by almost 40 per cent, dealing a death blow to his legendary travel and hospitality spending.


In the interim, Ruto’s rhetoric on Twitter has climbed down somewhat, with his tweets now strictly limited to statecraft and condolences. He has also directed his stalwarts not to publicly engage Uhuru, and many of them have since toned down. Ruto has also terminated his public attacks on Raila, doubtless out of fear of losing even more supporters and winning sympathy for the ODM leader.


In retrospect, it was inevitable that Ruto change strategy. A Raila-Uhuru TagTeam in the 2022 elections could deliver a veritable death knell to his ambitions. As things stand, he is at a distinct disadvantage because the formidable forces lined up against him have indicated a willingness to do everything it takes to lock him out of the race. He also knows all too well that Raila is a daunting prospect, and it will be a gargantuan task to take Raila on once he joins forces with the president.


On his part, Central Organisation of Trade Unions (COTU) Secretary-General Francis Atwoli—hot on the heels of being coronated Luhya spokesman (alongside Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and Devolution Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa)—has dismissed claims that Ruto has massive support in Western Kenya. "Luhyas will not vote for Ruto. Of that I am sure. he said. “And I am also sure Ruto will not be the president of Kenya. He should stop wasting his money." Previously, a popular saying in Central Kenya was, “Raila will never be president.” That leaves two men who will never be president countermining each other to be president.

These are the days of miracle and wonder.

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