Finance Bill 2024: William Ruto's Waterloo?

The Crumbling Foundations of UDA

In a striking turn of events, President William Ruto’s political fortress, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), is showing signs of severe fragmentation. As the Finance Bill 2024 looms, slated to be tabled in Parliament on Tuesday June 18th, dissent within Ruto’s ranks is becoming increasingly visible.

This growing discord, fuelled by grievances from prominent figures like Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and UDA founding Chairman Johnson Muthama, casts a shadow over Ruto’s leadership and raises critical questions about his future and the stability of his administration.

Muthama’s Discontent and Call for Kamba Unity

Johnson Muthama’s recent statements underscore a significant rift within the UDA.

Speaking at a burial in Makueni County on Friday, Muthama expressed dissatisfaction with President Ruto’s treatment of leaders from the Ukambani region, accusing Ruto of relegating them to "messenger jobs." This criticism comes despite Muthama’s previous unwavering support for Ruto, highlighting a dramatic shift in political allegiances.

Muthama’s call for unity among the Kamba community and his suggestion to rally behind Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka for the 2027 presidential bid signal a strategic realignment.

His comments suggest a pivot towards regional consolidation, aimed at enhancing the Ukambani region’s bargaining power in future coalitions. The fact that Kalonzo Musyoka embraced this call for unity only further cements the potential for a formidable new political alliance.

Gachagua’s Defection: A Symbolic Blow

Meanwhile, Rigathi Gachagua’s departure from UDA, captured in a viral video where he sought public approval to abandon Ruto and join forces with Uhuru Kenyatta, epitomises the internal turmoil within the ruling party. Gachagua’s move reflects deep-rooted frustrations and a sense of betrayal felt by many within UDA, and indeed the country as a whole, who believe Ruto is fully out of touch with the grassroots.

Gachagua’s public questioning of Ruto’s leadership and his declaration of speaking for the people amplify the narrative that Ruto’s administration is increasingly disconnected from the electorate’s realities. This defection not only weakens Ruto’s political base but also emboldens other dissenting voices within the party.

The Finance Bill 2024: An Unpopular Gamble

The Finance Bill 2024, Ruto’s ambitious yet highly unwelcome project, has sparked widespread public outcry.

Critics argue that the bill, which introduces new taxes and fiscal measures, disproportionately burdens ordinary Kenyans while serving the interests of the global elite.

Ruto’s insistence on pushing the bill through, by force, by fire, despite its unpopularity, reflects a gross miscalculation of his political capital and the public’s tolerance for economic hardship.

And the bill’s timing could not be worse.

As Ruto faces mounting internal rebellion and external criticism, his dogged pursuit of the Finance Bill 2024 may well become his political Waterloo. The president’s perceived arrogance and dismissiveness towards public sentiment have only fuelled more resentment and opposition.

A Misjudgment of the Kenyan Psyche

Ruto’s leadership style, characterised by a combination of bravado and authoritarianism, has alienated many who once saw him as a champion of the underprivileged.

His failure to address key concerns and his demonstrated aloofness from grassroots issues have tarnished his image. Moreover, his statements during a foreign trip to South Korea at the beginning of his presidency, where he gloated about divine endorsement of his election victory, have been interpreted as hubris and insensitivity to Kenya’s socio-economic challenges. Has God now turned his back on William Ruto?

The Road Ahead: Realignments and Reckonings
As political realignments take shape, the landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential election is poised for significant transformation. The growing alliance between Muthama and Musyoka, coupled with Gachagua’s defection, suggests a consolidation of opposition forces that could present a formidable challenge to Ruto’s re-election bid.

For Ruto, the immediate task is to navigate the fallout from the Finance Bill 2024. Failure to heed the public’s concerns and mend the rifts within his party could spell the end of his political dominance. The president must reconcile his policies with the aspirations of ordinary Kenyans, demonstrating a willingness to adapt and listen.

A Defining Moment for Kenya
William Ruto’s tenure as president has reached a critical juncture. The disintegration within UDA and the widespread backlash against the Finance Bill 2024 highlight a leadership crisis that could redefine Kenya’s political trajectory.

Whether Ruto can salvage his administration and restore public trust remains to be seen. However, the current unrest underscores a broader demand for accountability, transparency, and responsive governance in Kenya.

As political alliances shift and new coalitions emerge, the next few years will be pivotal in determining the country’s direction. For Ruto, this moment calls for introspection and recalibration. The president’s ability to adapt to the evolving political landscape and address the grievances of both his party and the public will ultimately decide his fate and that of his administration.